AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2026: Elo Recap

What a crazy finish to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!

Collin Morikawa ended an 847-day win drought with a birdie on the 72nd hole to finish at 22-under and win by a single stroke over Min Woo Lee and Sepp Straka. It was classic Pebble Beach drama — six players shared the lead at various points on Sunday, and Scottie Scheffler nearly pulled off the biggest comeback in the tournament's history with three eagles in a final-round 63, including a 6-iron to 30 inches on 18. But Morikawa held his nerve and answered with a birdie of his own to seal it.

Looking at Collin's head-to-head Elo history, he's had a bit of an up and down start to the year but the last two weeks have seen him go up 80 Elo to 1,795, moving his ranking from #49 to #13 in the PGA Tour rankings.

Collin having to wait 20 minutes for his approach shot into the 18th highlights what Elo golf is about. That tee group of Collin Morikawa, Akshay Bhatia and Sepp Straka all had to wait in the cold and try not to let the moment get the better of them. Each tee time has its own challenges, its own inner game and comparing their approach shots against a morning tee time just isn't apples to apples. Collin hitting an approach from 235 yards out with a start line over the ocean landing it 26 feet from the hole was a lot better than the strokes gained score it got.

The race for #1: Scheffler vs Fleetwood

From an Elo perspective, the main interest all week has been the battle for the number 1 spot. After Round 1, the gap between Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood was just 7 Elo points. By mid-Round 3, Fleetwood was actually projected to overtake Scheffler for the #1 spot — Tommy was beating Russell Henley and Rory McIlroy while Scottie was losing to J.T. Poston and Alex Noren in what we called his "easy" draw that turned out to be anything but.

Scottie's consistency has been dropping since August last year, but his best is still incredible. His final-round 63 clawed back some Elo, but he still finished -21.8 Elo for the week. Fleetwood gained +26.8 and hit a new career-peak Elo of 1,919 — the highest rating he's ever had in over 12 years on Tour. Congrats to Tommy, he's been in consistently good form since July 2025. Now the gap between Scheffler and Fleetwood is just 2 points. Scheffler holds #1 at 1,909, but Fleetwood is breathing right down his neck at 1,907. They're both competing at the Genesis Invitational next week. Let's hope they get grouped together.

Hideki keeps climbing

Hideki Matsuyama continues his incredible form. After gaining +80 Elo at the Phoenix Open, he added another +60.1 this week, climbing from #10 to #3 in the PGA Tour rankings. At 1,864 by tournament's end, he actually hit a new career-peak of 1,875 during the final round before settling back. His driver might not always be playing nicely but he's scoring well regardless and playing the best golf of his career right now.

Other notable movers

Several players made big jumps this week:

Min Woo Lee gained +75.7 Elo and climbed from #149 to #56. His T2 finish was his best result in months after a rough stretch that saw him drop from a peak of 1,849 to 1,553 last October. He's back to 1,701 and trending up. Consistency hasn't been Min Woo's strong point though. Let's see how he goes next week.
Shane Lowry picked up +64.7 Elo and moved up to #22, continuing strong form with four wins in his last five Elo matches. He hasn't played much PGA golf recently but he's been in good form since the Tour Championship last August.

Not everyone's week

The flip side of big Elo gains is big Elo losses. This week's notable drops:

Pierceson Coody had the toughest week, dropping -78.1 Elo after previously hitting peak form on the 6th of Feb.
Aaron Rai lost -73.9 Elo and has been trending downwards since last August.
Sahith Theegala didn't have the best week and fell -71.8 Elo and is now ranked #91 at 1,666 — a long way from his peak of 1,832. But he's been improving after a big slump March - September last year.
Ben Griffin dropped -44.3 Elo and slipped from #2 to #4 in the rankings — Fleetwood and Matsuyama both leapfrogged him.

Career peaks hit this week

Going into the final round, two players were sitting at career-high Elo ratings: Jake Knapp (1,860) and Akshay Bhatia (1,841). Knapp ended up dropping back to 1,815 after a tough Sunday. But the final round delivered two new career peaks — Hideki Matsuyama hit 1,875 and Fleetwood reached 1,919, proof that peaks can come at any stage of your career.

Looking at the PGA rankings

After two weeks of action, the top 5 on elo.golf looks like this:

The difference between #1 and #5 is only 79 points which is roughly what a single strong tournament can swing. With everyone bar Tyrrell Hatton playing next week it'll be fun to watch. Fleetwood's consistency is being reflected in the Elo numbers and similarly Scottie's lack of consistency is also showing.

Check out the full tournament breakdown at elo.golf/pga/events/at-t-pebble-beach-pro-am-2026 and the updated PGA Tour rankings.